Abstract: Based on the historical meteorological and hydrological observation data over the past several decades,the parameters of the model established by Holland et al(1978).were calibrated.Meanwhile,an annual time-scale climate-runoff simulation model for the Liaohe River basin was built.Based on the new model,the simulation,sensitivity and prediction tests were carried out.The results indicate that under the condition of increase of annual precipitation by 10%,the annual runoff will increase by 14% and 31.5% in accordance with temperature increasing and decreasing by 1 ℃,respectively.However,under the condition of the increase of 1 ℃ in annual mean temperature,the annual runoff will increase by 14% and decrease by 30% corresponding to annual precipitation increasing and decreasing by 10%,respectively,which indicates that the response of runoff to the variation of precipitation is relatively more sensitive.On the basis of the estimated data for climate change scenarios released by the national climate center,the simulated predication results during 2001-2030 show that under the scenario of B1,temperature rises moderately and precipitation increases significantly as well as runoff increases evidently.In addition,under the scenario of A1B,temperature rises obviously and precipitation increases moderately while runoff increases with a small amplitude.Besides,under the scenario of A2,the increasing amplitude of temperature is smallest and precipitation increase moderately as well as the increase of runoff is in a medium level.

Key words: Runoff, Climate change, Response, Liaohe River basin